As the wildfires in Camp and Woolsey in California continue to rage, local and federal agencies are working towards containing them to avoid further damage to life and property. The fire has already claimed 79 lives with 700 still reported missing, according to the Associated Press (AP). The AP report stated that the fire which burned at least 236 square miles destroyed 12,000 homes.While it was too early to estimate the damage done by the wildfire, California Insurance Commissioner Dave Jones told AP that to give a perspective, “Northern California fires that gutted 6,800 homes last year resulted in $12.6 billion in insured losses,” Jones told AP.The Impact on HousingAccording to the latest data by Realtor.com, the number of homes destroyed in the Camp Fire, which is being seen as the most deadly and destructive fire in California history, is equivalent to 18 months of active listing inventory. “The $3 billion of property within the fire boundaries is equivalent to almost 18 percent of the value of single-family residential properties in Butte County,” Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com.”With more than 12,000 residences destroyed or damaged and only 858 properties on the market in October, its damage has already overwhelmed the local real estate market,” Hale said. “Looking forward, insurance dollars pouring into the area will help cover some rebuilding costs, but residents should expect a roller-coaster ride of home prices and rents as inventory gets scooped up by displaced families.”While the destruction from the Woolsey fire is lower than expected, Realtor.com expects the housing market in this area to slow in the coming months as “local homeowners assess the damage and plan for the future.” Realtor.com found that the homes affected in Woolsey were more expensive than the surrounding areas with a median value of $985,000 within the fire boundary versus $685,000 in Ventura County. “This suggests that those affected may have more resources to deal with the impact of the fire, and the tightest part of the housing market, affordable, entry-level homes, will be less affected,” Hale said.Effect on RMBSWhile the fires would be having an overall lasting impact on the housing market of these counties, a recent Kroll Bond Rating Agency (KBRA) report analyzing the fire’s impact on residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) in the area revealed that it would have a marginal effect on RMBS in the area. While collateral concentrations in KBRA’s RMBS portfolio were higher in California at 35.6 percent, KBRA noted that exposure of RMBS in the ZIP codes which included evacuation areas was relatively limited as a percentage of the agency’s portfolio.While the California Core-Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) covering Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim,Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura and Chico represent 11.20 percent, 0.76 percent, and 0.04 percent, respectively, of total pool balance within KBRA’s rated RMBS portfolio, the zip codes within these CBSAs where evacuation orders were given represented a much smaller subset of KBRA’s portfolio, the agency said. “Potential impact to evacuation areas include only 0.27 percent of the collateral from properties backing KBRA’s rated RMBS portfolio,” KBRA said in its analysis.However, it pointed out that the true damage and exposure was still unknown due to the ” ongoing nature of these wildfires and the speculative nature of this exposure analysis.””Unlike flood insurance, which is only required for borrowers in flood zones, all borrowers are required tohave hazard insurance, which typically covers fire damage, including wildfires,” the analysis noted. “Representation & Warranties (R&Ws) in RMBS typically cover the presence of hazard insurance and damage to the property occurring prior to the securitization closing date.” Print This Post Previous: Why are Single-Family Rents Surging? Next: Caring for Veterans Past Veterans Day The Best Markets For Residential Property Investors 2 days ago Servicers Navigate the Post-Pandemic World 2 days ago Related Articles November 20, 2018 1,828 Views An Update on California Wildfires The Best Markets For Residential Property Investors 2 days ago About Author: Radhika Ojha The Week Ahead: Nearing the Forbearance Exit 2 days ago in Daily Dose, Featured, Loss Mitigation, News Sign up for DS News Daily Demand Propels Home Prices Upward 2 days ago Tagged with: California Danielle Hale Homes HOUSING Insurance KBRA Realtor.com RMBS wildfire Servicers Navigate the Post-Pandemic World 2 days ago California Danielle Hale Homes HOUSING Insurance KBRA Realtor.com RMBS wildfire 2018-11-20 Radhika Ojha Governmental Measures Target Expanded Access to Affordable Housing 2 days ago Governmental Measures Target Expanded Access to Affordable Housing 2 days ago Share Save Data Provider Black Knight to Acquire Top of Mind 2 days ago Radhika Ojha is an independent writer and copy-editor, and a reporter for DS News. She is a graduate of the University of Pune, India, where she received her B.A. in Commerce with a concentration in Accounting and Marketing and an M.A. in Mass Communication. Upon completion of her masters degree, Ojha worked at a national English daily publication in India (The Indian Express) where she was a staff writer in the cultural and arts features section. Ojha, also worked as Principal Correspondent at HT Media Ltd and at Honeywell as an executive in corporate communications. She and her husband currently reside in Houston, Texas. Home / Daily Dose / An Update on California Wildfires Data Provider Black Knight to Acquire Top of Mind 2 days ago Demand Propels Home Prices Upward 2 days ago Subscribe
Government action to impact fossil fuel generation in PJMActions by state governments within the PJM market could be set to limit future fossil fuel generation or even lead to them withdrawing from the market entirely, the report suggests.The states of Illinois, New Jersey and Virginia already have aggressive clean energy goals that will likely limit future fossil fuel plant development, while other states in the region are weighing up similar actions.In a potentially huge blow, the analysts point out that Illinois, Maryland and New Jersey are even considering exiting PJM, after the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission handed down an order that critics say favours fossil fuels – and the states claim counteract the efforts to use renewables. Unpredictable events, such as the coronavirus pandemicAs has been witnessed across the course of 2020, high-impact, unpredictable global events such as Covid-19 can “radically reshape markets and expectations of future demand”.The pandemic cut daily peak load in the PJM by about 13.5 gigawatts (GW), and the system operator says it may be 2023 before demand fully recovers.Another factor is climate change. The report notes that across the PJM’s service territory, average temperatures, precipitation levels, occurrences of extreme heat and precipitation events have been increasing and are projected to continue rising over the next few decades.Higher precipitation events have resulted in increased flooding risk, which can displace human communities, disrupt ecosystems, damage existing energy infrastructure, affect the useful life of new infrastructure and disrupt business operations in the energy sector, according to the analysis. Energy researcher Wood Mackenzie’s latest outlook report claims 2021 will be a “defining year” for the gas and LNG industry (Credit: Wikimedia Commons/Peoplepoweredbyenergy) Investors pursuing opportunities on new gas-fired projects in the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM) system are facing “substantial risks”.That is according to a joint report by the Applied Economics Clinic (AEC) and the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), which claims the landscape for developers of natural gas-fired power plants in the PJM, the US’s largest regional power system, has “shifted dramatically” over the past decade.The analysis, titled Risks Outweigh Rewards for Investors Considering PJM Natural Gas Projects, notes that the PJM, which coordinates the flow of power to more than 65 million electric customers in 13 states and the District of Columbia, is “indispensable” to the region’s economy.But, on the flip side, it also highlights that the system’s reliance on gas poses “substantial risks” for customers and investors, underscored by “problems at 11 proposed gas-fired combined cycle power plants”.Here are six factors that the AEC and IEEFA believe pose growing risks for investors in new PJM gas-fired power projects. The PJM is the US’s largest regional power system, as it coordinates the flow of power to more than 65 million electric customers in 13 states and the District of Columbia Six risks facing investors in new PJM gas-fired projectsRenewable energy and other zero-carbon resourcesThe report highlights that the “increasing price competitiveness” of clean solar, wind, demand response and battery storage alternatives as a risk for investing in gas-fired power projects.It predicts renewable energy will grow in the PJM as costs continue to fall, making it “more economic than conventional fossil resources”.The report highlights that the “increasing price competitiveness” of clean solar, wind, demand response and battery storage alternatives as a risk for investing in gas-fired power projects (Credit: Flickr/Homeandgardners)The AEC and IEEFA expect load flexibility resources like battery storage, demand response and energy efficiency will also become increasingly important, which will help to integrate high levels of renewable generation.Meanwhile, the analysts claim the impacts of the coronavirus pandemic have “illuminated the limited resiliency” of gas resources to unexpected shocks and uncertain future conditions, while renewable resources have “fared much better”. Capacity OversupplySignificant existing overcapacity, flat demand growth and market turmoil are key concerns noted in the report.The PJM’s summer reserve margin in 2018 was almost 33%, more than twice the power system’s target, which has undercut the need for any new capacity.The analysis highlights that changes ordered by US regulators to the PJM’s capacity market resulted in controversy, as the dispute has delayed the system’s capacity auction by almost a year, with “no certainty about when or how it will be resolved”. Uncertainty surrounding the future of gasThe report warns that the uncertainty surrounding the future direction of gas prices is a potential risk for investors, particularly given the substantial rise in US liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports.The report warns that the substantial rise in US liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports could impact the success of gas-fired projects (Credit: Flickr/Roy Luck)With US gas prices now increasingly tied to international markets, the analysis notes that this is making long-term predictions “increasingly uncertain” and significantly raises the risks for new gas plant development.In turn, the study claims that being linked with international developments is “likely to increase domestic gas price volatility”, which injects additional risk into gas-fired power plant financing decisions in the PJM. Public objections could delay project developmentThe report pinpoints public opposition as a potential risk to investors, as it can delay project development – which is a common occurrence for plants in the US – and raise overall costs.Every single one of the 11 gas-fired plants currently in the early stages of development in the PJM have experienced delays.The analysis notes that projects must overcome both local opposition – stemming from concerns about water and air quality impacts – as well as broader regional and national concerns about contributions to climate change.It adds that any delays are likely to be costly and could potentially raise the possibility of “major changes in the marketplace” before the project is completed.
Japanese energy company Inpex has informed that the LNG Tanker Oceanic Breeze called in for the first time at Inpex’s Naoetsu LNG Terminal in Joetsu City, Niigata Prefecture, Japan. The tanker has delivered a cargo of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the INPEX-operated Ichthys LNG project in Australia.LNG carrier Oceanic Breeze delivers Ichthys LNG cargo to Naoetsu LNG TerminalOceanic Breeze is owned by Oceanic Breeze LNG Transport, a joint venture between INPEX Shipping Co., Ltd. (INPEX Shipping) (30%) and Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd. (K-Line) (70%), and designated to transport the 0.9 million tons per year of Ichthys LNG entitled to INPEX.“Oceanic Breeze’s transportation and delivery of Ichthys LNG to the terminal marks a significant milestone in Inpex’s development of a global gas value chain business, positioned as one of the company’s business targets outlined in Vision 2040 announced in May 2018. Going forward, INPEX will continue to strive to serve its customers with safe and stable supplies of natural gas, an environmentally friendly fuel,” Inpex, which sanctioned the project back in 2012, said on Tuesday.Inpex recently said that 2018 had been the most significant year in the INPEX-operated Ichthys LNG journey, as the company celebrated its first LNG export cargo and the official opening of Ichthys LNG onshore processing facilities.With the operating project life of 40 years just starting, Inpex-run Ichthys LNG project will produce 8.9 million tonnes of LNG per year, and up to 1.6 million tonnes of LPG per annum, and 100,000 barrels of condensate per day at peak, drawing gas from the Ichthys field located in the Browse basin offshore W. Australia.The Ichthys LNG Project is located in the Ichthys field within the northern Browse Basin about 220 kilometers north-west of Western Australia’s Kimberley coast, at the western edge of the Timor Sea.